McKintyre & McKitrick publish again ! - sci.environment

Message from discussion McKintyre & McKitrick publish again !

James Annan

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More options Feb 4 2005, 6:18 am

Newsgroups: sci.environment

From: James Annan <still_the_same...@hotmail.com>

Date: Fri, 04 Feb 2005 20:18:29 +0900

Local: Fri, Feb 4 2005 6:18 am

Subject: Re: McKintyre & McKitrick publish again !

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peroxisome wrote:
> I'm still not sure what your point is. There are uncertainties on the
> measurements/reconstructions. How close an agreement do you expect, and

> why?

> I am not sure that the 2 sigma error range is necessarily the basis for
> attempting to determine whether two reconstructions are statistically
> significantly different.

> I am not sure that the process of "normalisation" hasn't already
> completely skewed the comparison.

> In other words, when the claim is made that 10-15 other reconstructions
> substantiate MBH'98, it is not clear to me what the basis for saying
> this is. Even if there are other reconstructions; how close do they
> have to be to substantiate MBH ?

The substantive point seems to be whether or not the late 20th century
is abnormally warm and also perhaps warming at an abnormally rapid rate.
These are the only reasons why the septics are desperate to attack MBH
in the first place - it's not as if they actually care about the
methods, or climate science in general.

The other reconstructions certainly seem to support the former
(abnormally warm). It is not so clear to me that the rate of warming is
abnormal, the Esper curve in particular shows some rapid changes.

If that doesn't answer your question, then I'm afraid I am still at a
loss as to what you are asking.

James
--
If I have seen further than others, it is
by treading on the toes of giants.
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/julesandjames/home/

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