> Too bad you don't have the 10 of hearts or else you would want to be in 6NT.
> A diamond is led.
> This is a complicated hand where a number of lines of play could work. But > what do you think is the best line?
> Regards, > Cakemeister
*** I would try to set up dummy. After the diamond king wins, club to ace, club ruff. Heart ace, throwing a diamond, spade ace and spade to king. Club ruff. this wins with 4-2 clubs and 3-2 spades.
> > Too bad you don't have the 10 of hearts or else you would want to be in 6NT.
> > A diamond is led.
> > This is a complicated hand where a number of lines of play could work. But > > what do you think is the best line?
> > Regards, > > Cakemeister
> *** > I would try to set up dummy. After the diamond king wins, club to > ace, club ruff. Heart ace, throwing a diamond, spade ace and spade to > king. Club ruff. this wins with 4-2 clubs and 3-2 spades.
> Sandy Barnes > ***
which adds to 60%. Starting with a spade finesse gives you a lot more chances, but most of them are splinter chances so I don't think they amount to much. The big difference is that when LHO or RHO has Qxx of spades you are still 85% (to pick up the clubs with two ruffs), whereas after a losing finesse to Qx or Qxx the remaining chance is only 50+% (to pick up the clubs with one ruff).
> Too bad you don't have the 10 of hearts or else you would want to be in > 6NT.
> A diamond is led.
> This is a complicated hand where a number of lines of play could work. But > what do you think is the best line?
> Regards, > Cakemeister
*** I would try to set up dummy. After the diamond king wins, club to ace, club ruff. Heart ace, throwing a diamond, spade ace and spade to king. Club ruff. this wins with 4-2 clubs and 3-2 spades.
Sandy Barnes ***
I wonder what the probability of this line is as opposed to the crossruff line.
Unfortunately, your play fails as the cards lay, barring a defensive error.
RHO had: Q10xx Kxx Jxx Qxx
So, when you play ace of clubs, ruff a club, ace of hearts, ace of spades, king of spades, LHO will show out. Now you can play the king of clubs and thankfully the queen drops.
That leaves something like:
9x - A Jxx
Q10 Kx Jx -
J QJxxx - -
All RHO has to do is duck dummy's four winners and he will take the last two tricks with the Q10 of spades.
The crossruff line which is king of diamonds, ace of hearts discarding a club, ruff a heart, ace of diamonds discarding a heart, ruff a diamond, ruff a heart, ace king of clubs, ruff a club, ruff a heart with the king, ruff a club with the jack, works.
I like ruffing a heart in dummy early because if the king drops you are in good shape.
> > Too bad you don't have the 10 of hearts or else you would want to be in > > 6NT.
> > A diamond is led.
> > This is a complicated hand where a number of lines of play could work. But > > what do you think is the best line?
> > Regards, > > Cakemeister
> *** > I would try to set up dummy. After the diamond king wins, club to > ace, club ruff. Heart ace, throwing a diamond, spade ace and spade to > king. Club ruff. this wins with 4-2 clubs and 3-2 spades.
> Sandy Barnes > ***
> I wonder what the probability of this line is as opposed to the crossruff > line.
> Unfortunately, your play fails as the cards lay, barring a defensive error.
> RHO had: > Q10xx > Kxx > Jxx > Qxx
> So, when you play ace of clubs, ruff a club, ace of hearts, ace of spades, > king of spades, LHO will show out. Now you can play the king of clubs and > thankfully the queen drops.
> That leaves something like:
> 9x > - > A > Jxx
> Q10 > Kx > Jx > -
> J > QJxxx > - > -
> All RHO has to do is duck dummy's four winners and he will take the last two > tricks with the Q10 of spades.
> The crossruff line which is king of diamonds, ace of hearts discarding a > club, ruff a heart, ace of diamonds discarding a heart, ruff a diamond, ruff > a heart, ace king of clubs, ruff a club, ruff a heart with the king, ruff a > club with the jack, works.
But it must be hugely against the odds. The chance to score two club ruffs in hand is under 50%, hence already the crossruff is substantially inferior to Sandy's line. Never mind the possibility that the hearts may be xx on the right.
Indeed, if you begin as you propose (i.e. club A,K, ruff) and see that clubs are 3-3, what seems natural to me simply play spade A, K and try to run the clubs. This works when trumps are 3-2 which is of course better than the chance to score a club ruff with the trump J.
As a slight technical improvement, along the way ruff a heart just in case RHO is 4333 as in the matrix above.
But now we are at a line that is easy to compare with Sandy's. Is it better to cash two clubs before ruffing one, or only one as he does? Cashing two clubs gains some of the time that the Q drops tripleton (36%) and trumps are 1=4 (14%). Cashing one club usually gains when RHO has Qxxx of clubs (16%) and trumps are 3-2 (68%). Some of 5% is less than most of 11%.
> I like ruffing a heart in dummy early because if the king drops you are in > good shape.
I don't. Yes, you are nearly home the 16% of the time that the hK is doubleton. But the price you pay is the chance to establish the clubs when someone has Qxxx (32%) and in addition trumps are 3-2 (net of 22%).
