GOVERNMENT BODY CLAIMS
----------------------

-------------------------------------------------------------
Australia                      1991               1996      
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Total Population:          17,269,000 (*)     18,260,863 (**)
Admitted Scientologsts:         1,091 (+)          1,500 (++)
Scientologist Density:     0.00006318%        0.00008214%
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Big win!  0.000019% growth rate in Australia!

Now let's see if the Australian Orgs are pulling their weight:

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World                          1991               1996
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Total Population:        5,365,419,152 (+)  5,771,326,100 (+)
Claimed Scientologists:      8,000,000 (~)      8,000,000 (~)
Claimed Density:              0.001491%          0.001386%
Australian Population:      17,269,000         18,260,863
Expected Aus. Scns:             25,748             25,310
-------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis: the number of Scientologists in Australia is about 20 times
smaller than we would expect if the 8 million figure is correct and that
Scientologists are evenly distributed around the world (anecdotal evidence
suggests otherwise).

(*)  Source: CIA World Factbook, July 1996 estimate

(**) Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (via Rev.Dr. David Gerard)

(+)  Source: US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html)

(++) Source: Anon posting quoting 1996  Australian Census

(~)  Source: Numerous Scientology publications.  Despite claiming massive
     worldwide growth, the official number of scientologists has remained
     constant for six years.

SCIENTOLOGY CLAIMS
------------------

Scientology offers demographics:

http://www.scientology.org/p_jpg/heritage/heriteng/dmografx/27-table.htm

Data is complete in five year intervals to 1990, with some 1992 figures.
Observations:

  - "Number of practising scientologists" is not listed.

  - Growth in ALL categories is polynomial before 1990.

  - 1990 figures show growth rate INCREASING in: Number of Auding Hours
    Delivered Yearly in Churches and Missions (Not Cumulative); Scientology
    Publications Distribution; Number of Community Action & Social Reform
    Groups; Number of Churches, Missions and Organization; Dianetics Books
    Sold;

  - 1990 figures show growth rate DECLINING in: Number of People
    Participating in Scientology for the First Year (Per Year).

Analysis: Scientology is not attracting new people as quickly as it used
to.  By scientology's own figures, he growth rate of publications/
/organizations/auding hours is greater than the growth rate of new
members.  From this we can conclude that existing members are receiving
more publications in the mail and undergoing more auditing than before.

The 1990 date coincides approximately with the commencement of the war
against the Internet.

Murray

--
-- Murray Chapman                               Zheenl Punczna            --
-- muz...@cs.uq.oz.au                           zhm...@pf.hd.bm.nh        --
-- University of Queensland                     Havirefvgl bs Dhrrafynaq  --
-- Brisbane, Australia                          Oevfonar, Nhfgenyvn       --