Prediction Markets Google Group

Re: Yoopick sports prediction contest, now with Olympics

penno...@yahoo-inc.com (David Pennock) — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:13:06 UT

Thanks for the kind words, Emile, and the inquiry. Would be glad to
consider that.

Re: Yoopick sports prediction contest, now with Olympics

e...@newsfutures.com (Emile Servan-Schreiber) — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 09:02:43 UT

Congratulations, Dave, it's a beautiful thing!
What are the possibilities for licensing your algorithms for enterprise use?
--Emile

Yoopick sports prediction contest, now with Olympics

penno...@yahoo-inc.com (David Pennock) — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 20:22:30 UT

I invite list members to join and play Yoopick, a sports prediction
contest on Facebook developed at Yahoo! Research:
[link]
We recently added Olympic medal count predictions:
[link]

Re: Market Manipulation and Public Confidence in Prediction Markets. Please Comment

johncl...@gmail.com (azman) — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 01:03:03 UT

I think there can be no clearer sign of market manipulation than this
market, currently featured on Intrade.

2008.PRES.GORE
345 1.2 1.2 131 1.2 188.2k 0

That's right, one trader is posting a locked market at 1.2-1.2
345x131.

Should we believe that this trader is short 345 lots? Or is he long

Re: Prediction failures

bhob...@gmail.com (Byrne Hobart) — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 23:31:13 UT

No. It is pretty much impossible to 1) have an economic disaster that 2)
people predicted well enough to prepare for. I think a better example would
be to talk about all the shortages and surpluses that didn't happen, but
would have happened without futures markets.
Fortunately, the markets always give you a chance to prove me wrong: if you

Prediction failures

aa3...@wayne.edu (Bob Holley) — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 23:24:26 UT

The article at the end of the link talks about how badly the smart people at
GM predicted the increase in gasoline prices.
[link]
tml?cid=nl_IE_blog
Back in July 2005, I published a column titled The Limits of Prediction
<[link]

Call for Papers for the focused session on Prediction Markets at the WeB 2008

i...@andreas-graefe.org (Andreas Graefe) — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:01:32 UT

Submit your paper for the focused session on Prediction Markets at the
WeB 2008, the 7th Workshop on e-Business, Paris, France, December 13,
2008. Submission deadline: September 1, 2008.

The Seventh International Workshop on e-Business (WEB 2008) – Pre-ICIS
Workshop Sponsored by AIS SIGeBIZ

Finally, some approaches other than PM fetishism

david.b...@gmail.com (David Brin) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 18:29:04 UT

As resident crank-skeptic toward Prediction Markets, I retain a belief
that they are far too much like "Delphi," suffering from some of the
same faults, like tendentiousness, herd mentality, and far too little
attention being paid to aspects that would make a prediction-tracking
system actually useful to society.

Re: Market Manipulation and Public Confidence in Prediction Markets. Please Comment

john.dela...@intrade.com (John Delaney, CEO, Intrade.com) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 05:31:35 UT

Thanks Jason and Thomas for the comprehensive and illuminating
replies.

They really are great.

Lets have some others comments please.

When posting the original questions above I wasn't so much thinking
about Intrade as I was about the broader industry.

So I will hold off replying on specific Intrade related questions for

Regulated US election markets might not be so hard

rusp...@gmail.com (Jason Ruspini) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:53:32 UT

Here is my latest take on possible CFTC jurisdiction, outlining a way
in which these markets might still be launched in time for the
election. This intentionally does not address all of the questions
related to jurisdiction, and does not contradict the idea that some
markets deserve special exemptions.

Re: Market Manipulation and Public Confidence in Prediction Markets. Please Comment

rusp...@gmail.com (Jason Ruspini) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:33:32 UT

Hi John, let me offer a few scattered thoughts in response..

Aside from letting things take care of themselves, position limits are
both the easiest and most powerful way of combating price
manipulation. Beyond that the CFTC maintains a large trader reporting
infrastructure:
[link]

Re: Educating in Venezuela about prediciton markets

penno...@yahoo-inc.com (David Pennock) — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 21:53:02 UT

Chris gives a great summary. I might also suggest a couple other
pointers on my blog:
Handling multiple outcomes without a market maker:
[link]
How to implement Hanson's market maker:
[link]

Re: Educating in Venezuela about prediciton markets

asheinf...@gmail.com (Ing. Alberto Sheinfeld) — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 21:03:30 UT

Thanks everyone for your prompt answers I found very useful the
information given, I will keep a post on the advances we have on the
system and hope to talk further about PMs.

Thanks to all and good luck on your own PMs!

Alberto Sheinfeld

Mercury's Blog

sarah.jo...@valuenetworks.com (Sarah V. Jones) — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 20:27:36 UT

HYPERLINK "[link]"Mercury's Blog

HYPERLINK "[link]"“Wisdom of Crowds” and innovation - It’s not working
Posted: 03 Aug 2008 06:15 PM CDT
LightBulbSmall.jpg
I want to begin with a pet peeve: I really don’t like the word “innovation.” I think that many people and corporations have begun turning an important concept into a buzzword.

Re: Market Manipulation and Public Confidence in Prediction Markets. Please Comment

cygnusas...@gmail.com (Thomas S Davis) — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 14:14:40 UT

John -- "What is the relationship between insider trading, market manipulation
and predictive accuracy in our markets?"
To my mind, insider trading means an activity that will push a
prediction market towards more efficiency and more accuracy whereas
market manipulation does the opposite. Insider trading to me means